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Are classical option pricing models consistent with observed option secondorder moments? Evidence from high-frequency data

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As a means of validating an option pricing model, we compare the ex-post intra- 8 day realized variance of options with the realized variance of the associated under- 9 lying asset that would be implied using assumptions as in the Black and Scholes 10 (BS) model, the Heston and the Bates model. Based on data for the S&P 500 11 index, we find that the BS model is strongly directionally biased due to the pres- 12 ence of stochastic volatility. The Heston model reduces the mismatch in realized 13 variance between the two markets, but deviations are still significant. With the 14 exception of short-dated options, we achieve best approximations after controlling 15 for the presence of jumps in the underlying dynamics. Finally, we provide evidence 16 that, although heavily biased, the realized variance based on the BS model contains 17 relevant predictive information that can be exploited when option high-frequency 18 data is not available.

تاریخ ثبت: 1394/11/17
تعداد مطالعه: 263
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حجم فایل : 1.05 MB
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